The Effect of Oxytocin Nasal Spray on Preventing Postoperative Delirium in Elderly Patients Undergoing Orthopedic Surgery
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-06-02, after 2025-06-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: surgeryheart failurepatientclassstage
Phrases that lowered it: nasalinvestigateelderlysprayeffect -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 65 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 56 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 62 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3132 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 212 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- oxytocin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Cardiac Surgery Neuroprotection Study in Elders NCT01561378 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Melatonin for Post Operative Delirium Prevention in Elderly Patients NCT05640934 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Effect of Dexmedetomidine Dosage on Postoperative Delirium in Geriatric Orthopedic Surgery NCT07443085 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Combination of Haloperidol and Magnesium for Delirium Prevention in Critically Ill Elderly NCT06168773 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Dexmedetomidine in Reducing Postoperative Delirium in Cardiac Surgery Patients NCT06619912 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.