Bone Marrow Transplantation in Young Adults With Severe Sickle Cell Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-06-30, after 2012-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: celldonortransplantationtherapyhla
Phrases that lowered it: asthmadiseasespaintrialblood -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 43.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1489 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6588 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 11 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 16 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 149 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 75 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6588 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1489 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 43.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- busulfan, fludarabine, rabbit
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Bone Marrow Transplantation vs Standard of Care in Patients With Severe Sickle Cell Disease (BMT CTN 1503) NCT02766465 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Siplizumab for Sickle Cell Disease Transplant NCT06078696 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant for Sickle Cell Disease NCT02065596 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Safety and Effectiveness of Bone Marrow Transplants in Children With Sickle Cell Disease (BMT CTN 0601) NCT00745420 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Transplantation for Patients With Sickle Cell Disease From Mismatched Family Donors of Bone Marrow NCT02757885 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.