The Efficacy and Safety of Oral Azacitidine Plus Best Supportive Care Versus Placebo and Best Supportive Care in Subjects With Red Blood Cell (RBC) Transfusion-Dependent Anemia and Thrombocytopenia Due to International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) Low Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mdscellrandomizationcareprior
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacydisorder
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 49.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3412 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 1 Study of CC-486 in Japanese Subjects With Hematological Neoplasms NCT01908387 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• SIMIDIS: Azacitidine and Beta Erythropoietin Treatment in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT00495547 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Oral Decitabine/Cedazuridine in Combination With Magrolimab in Participants With Intermediate- to Very High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT05835011 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Pilot Study of CC 486 (Oral Azacitidine) Plus BSC as Maintenance After sc Azacitidine in Elderly HR-IPSS-R MDS Patients NCT04806906 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study of Etavopivat for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT05568225 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.