Evaluation of Myocardial Effects of MTP-131 for Reducing Reperfusion Injury in Patients With Acute Coronary Events

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorinjury30chronicdays
  Phrases that lowered it: safety tolerabilitytrialpatientsevaluateefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ASSessing the Effect of Anti-IL-6 Treatment in Myocardial Infarction: The ASSAIL-MI Trial NCT03004703 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect on Parameters of Systemic Inflammation and Disease Outcomes and Safety of RPH-104 in Subjects With Acute ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction NCT04463251 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Effect of Lantus and Apidra in Patients With Acute ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction NCT00670228 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• The STREAM Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Anticoagulant Sub-study NCT00882635 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Ilomedin Treatment for Patients Having Undergone Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) NCT01179776 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.