ASSessing the Effect of Anti-IL-6 Treatment in Myocardial Infarction: The ASSAIL-MI Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientacutehoursfailuremyocardial
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofevaluate thehistoryto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 58 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of the Interleukin-6 Receptor Antagonist Tocilizumab in Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction NCT01491074 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Myocardial Effects of MTP-131 for Reducing Reperfusion Injury in Patients With Acute Coronary Events NCT01572909 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Low-dose Interleukin-2 for the Reduction of Vascular Inflammation in Acute Coronary Syndromes - IVORY NCT04241601 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect on Parameters of Systemic Inflammation and Disease Outcomes and Safety of RPH-104 in Subjects With Acute ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction NCT04463251 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Controlled Level EVERolimus in Acute Coronary Syndromes NCT01529554 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.