Low-dose Interleukin-2 for the Reduction of Vascular Inflammation in Acute Coronary Syndromes - IVORY

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantationradiationpatientmyocardialpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningvisitinvestigaterelevantclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Low Dose Interleukin-2 in Patients With Stable Ischaemic Heart Disease and Acute Coronary Syndromes NCT03113773 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• VISTA-16 Trial: Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of Short-term A-002 Treatment in Subjects With Acute Coronary Syndrome NCT01130246 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Trial to Evaluate Reduction in Inflammation in Patients With Advanced Chronic Renal Disease Utilizing Antibody Mediated IL-6 Inhibition in Japan. NCT04626505 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Effect of PCSK9 Inhibition on Cardiovascular Risk in Treated HIV Infection (EPIC-HIV Study) NCT03207945 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect on Parameters of Systemic Inflammation and Disease Outcomes and Safety of RPH-104 in Subjects With Acute ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction NCT04463251 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.