Stereotactic Radiosurgery or Other Local Ablation Then Erlotinib in Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersmall cellcell lungnon smallnsclc
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesprevioustreatmenthistorychildren
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 54.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4897 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 37 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) in Newly Diagnosed Advanced Staged Lung Adenocarcinoma (Sindas) NCT02893332 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Randomized Gefitinib Trial NCT00807066 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Treatment Beyond Progression in EGFR Mutant NSCLC NCT02064491 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• ATOM_local Ablative Therapy NCT01941654 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• SRT for Residual Oligometastases of NSCLC After 3rd Generation EGFR-TKIs NCT04764214 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.