Outcome Study of Lanthanum Carbonate Compared With Calcium Carbonate in Hemodialysis Patients : Landmark Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (159 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-03-25, after 2011-12-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: calciumgreatertermmalignancytype
Phrases that lowered it: japanesecardiovascularhistorymonths beforedisorders -
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 53019 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12178 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, musculoskeletal, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carbonate, lanthanum carbonate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Not on Dialysis NCT01110629 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Chewed vs. Crushed Lanthanum Carbonate in Hemodialysis Patients NCT00660530 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Lanthanum Carbonate (Fosrenol®) to Reduce Oxalate Excretion in Patients With Secondary Hyperoxaluria and Nephrolithiasis NCT03346369 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Lanthanum Carbonate in Calciphylaxis NCT01289626 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Treatment to Reduce Vascular Calcification in Hemodialysis Patients Using Vitamin K NCT02870829 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.