A Multiple Dose Escalation Study of ASKP1240 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3B, Open-label, Single-arm Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Apremilast, in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis That is Not Adequately Controlled by Topical Therapy NCT03930186 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• To Compare Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy, and Safety of CT-P17 With Humira in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT05495568 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Immunogenicity of CC-90006 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT03337022 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single and Repeat Topical Administration of BOS-475 in Healthy Subjects and Patients With Psoriasis NCT03960450 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetic, Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of AVT02 With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT04453137 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.