Study of Azacitidine to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness for Chinese Patients With Higher Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomapriormarrowleukemia
  Phrases that lowered it: contraceptivechineseopenlabelblood
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 48.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot Study of CC 486 (Oral Azacitidine) Plus BSC as Maintenance After sc Azacitidine in Elderly HR-IPSS-R MDS Patients NCT04806906 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Pharmacokinetics, Food Effect, Safety and Efficacy of Oral Azacitidine NCT01519011 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Phase 1 Study of CC-486 in Japanese Subjects With Hematological Neoplasms NCT01908387 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Study of ASTX727 vs IV Decitabine in Participants With MDS, CMML, and AML NCT03306264 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study to Evaluate Overall Response in Patients With Higher Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) Treated With Azacitidine With or Without Deferasirox. NCT02159040 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.