Study of ASTX727 vs IV Decitabine in Participants With MDS, CMML, and AML
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-05-25, after 2018-02-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: refractorycancerleukemiacellchemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labeltabletcrossovertransaminase -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 20 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1271 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 232 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 31.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cedazuridine, decitabine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of Food on Blood Levels of ASTX727 NCT03813186 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Eltrombopag Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Subjects With Advanced Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) or Secondary Acute Myeloid Leukemia After MDS (sAML/MDS) NCT00903422 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- An Efficacy and Safety Study of Pevonedistat Plus Azacitidine Versus Single-Agent Azacitidine in Participants With Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (HR MDS), Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia (CMML) and Low-Blast Acute Myelogenous Leukemia (AML) NCT02610777 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 Study of Shattuck Labs (SL)-172154 in Subjects With MDS or AML NCT05275439 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
- Phase 1-2 Study of Low Dose ASTX727 (ASTX727 LD) in Lower Risk MDS NCT03502668 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.