Phase 1 Study of Shattuck Labs (SL)-172154 in Subjects With MDS or AML

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mdsamlleukemiaenrollmentprior
  Phrases that lowered it: first dosecombinationsubjects whomonotherapy20
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 36.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Investigating the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of ASP7517 in Subjects With Relapsed/Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and Relapsed/Refractory Higher Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT04079296 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1, Open Label Study of Intravenous GSK3745417 to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Determine RP2D & Schedule in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Myeloid Malignancies Including AML and HR MDS NCT05424380 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Study of ASTX727 vs IV Decitabine in Participants With MDS, CMML, and AML NCT03306264 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b Master Trial to Investigate CPX-351 in Subjects With Previously Untreated Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT04075747 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• First-in-human Study of SAR443579 Infusion in Male and Female Children and Adult Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (R/R AML), B-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (B-ALL), High Risk-myelodysplasia (HR-MDS), or Blastic Plasmacytoid Dendritic Cell Neoplasm (BPDCN) NCT05086315 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.