Phase 1-2 Study of Low Dose ASTX727 (ASTX727 LD) in Lower Risk MDS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellin subjectsrandomizationprior
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelpharmacokineticswomenbloodweeks before
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of ASTX727 vs IV Decitabine in Participants With MDS, CMML, and AML NCT03306264 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Romiplostim Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Subjects With Low or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT00614523 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetic Guided Dose Escalation and Dose Confirmation With Oral Decitabine and Oral Cytidine Deaminase Inhibitor (CDAi) in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT02103478 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study Evaluating TXA127 in Low/Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome and Thrombocytopenia NCT01362036 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Phase Ib Study of Select Drug Combinations in Patients With Lower Risk MDS NCT04810611 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.