Acute Effects of Progesterone on LH Pulses During the Follicular Phase (CRM006)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-07-31, after 2012-05-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: womenplacebohourskg m2the investigators
Phrases that lowered it: ovariandlmgmildmoderate -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 30 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 56 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 37 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3051 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 520 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- progesterone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Oral Levonorgestrel Plus Meloxicam, IG-002 Delays Ovulation in Normal Menstruating Women by Seven Days NCT05695352 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Progesterone Amplifies Estrogen-stimulated Growth Hormone Secretion in Older Women NCT02272647 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study of Ovulation in Obese Women NCT06306131 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Pregnancy in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome II NCT00719186 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3, Randomized, Three-Cycle, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate Induction of Secretory Conversion of Endometrium and Withdrawal Bleeding for Secondary Amenorrhea NCT02019589 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.