Phase II Study of Ovulation in Obese Women
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-11-30, after 2023-12-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellenrollmentpregnancycontraceptionhormonal
Phrases that lowered it: screeningcompareabnormalperiodparticipant -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 39.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12592 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 248737 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12592 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 39.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- levonorgestrel, meloxicam
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Oral Levonorgestrel Plus Meloxicam, IG-002 Delays Ovulation in Normal Menstruating Women by Seven Days NCT05695352 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Study to Evaluate the PK and PD of a Single Injection of Levonorgestrel Butanoate for Female Contraception NCT02173808 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Dose-finding Study to Evaluate the Effect of a Contraceptive Vaginal Ring, Releasing Nestorone® and Estradiol, on Cycle Control, Ovulation Inhibition, and Pharmacokinetics in Normal Cycling Women NCT01586000 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Study of Efficacy, Cycle Control, and Safety of a NES-E2 Contraceptive Vaginal Ring NCT03432416 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Safety and Efficacy Study of the Combination Estradiol and Progesterone to Treat Vasomotor Symptoms NCT01942668 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.