A Dose-finding Study to Evaluate the Effect of a Contraceptive Vaginal Ring, Releasing Nestorone® and Estradiol, on Cycle Control, Ovulation Inhibition, and Pharmacokinetics in Normal Cycling Women

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: squamousenrollmentcarcinomacancerprior
  Phrases that lowered it: known oror suspectedthe trialclinical trialhealthy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy, Cycle Control, and Safety of a NES-E2 Contraceptive Vaginal Ring NCT03432416 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study to Evaluate the PK and PD of a Single Injection of Levonorgestrel Butanoate for Female Contraception NCT02173808 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Multi-center, Open-label, Randomized, Parallel Group Study to Evaluate Pharmacokinetic Profile, Effects on the Mechanisms of Contraceptive Efficacy and Safety of Two Progestin-only Patches Containing Different Doses of Levonorgestrel (LNG) NCT01166412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Oral Levonorgestrel Plus Meloxicam, IG-002 Delays Ovulation in Normal Menstruating Women by Seven Days NCT05695352 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Ovulation in Obese Women NCT06306131 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.