Study of Efficacy, Cycle Control, and Safety of a NES-E2 Contraceptive Vaginal Ring

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectcarcinomacancersubjectstreatment
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsinvestigatorsafety ofor suspectedhealthy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 35 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose-finding Study to Evaluate the Effect of a Contraceptive Vaginal Ring, Releasing Nestorone® and Estradiol, on Cycle Control, Ovulation Inhibition, and Pharmacokinetics in Normal Cycling Women NCT01586000 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study to Evaluate the PK and PD of a Single Injection of Levonorgestrel Butanoate for Female Contraception NCT02173808 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Multi-center, Open-label, Randomized, Parallel Group Study to Evaluate Pharmacokinetic Profile, Effects on the Mechanisms of Contraceptive Efficacy and Safety of Two Progestin-only Patches Containing Different Doses of Levonorgestrel (LNG) NCT01166412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• The Effects of Annovera™ and Tampon Co-Usage on the Pharmacokinetics of Segesterone Acetate and Ethinyl Estradiol NCT04272008 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Oral Levonorgestrel Plus Meloxicam, IG-002 Delays Ovulation in Normal Menstruating Women by Seven Days NCT05695352 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.