Trial of Artemether-Lumefantrine Alone and in Combination With Ivermectin to Reduce Post-Treatment Malaria Transmission
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-04-30, after 2013-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: to determinecardiacreducechroniccontrolled trial
Phrases that lowered it: drugsinfectedclinicalparticipantcombination -
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 15 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 15 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 25 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 86 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 21 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1152 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 72 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- artemether lumefantrine, ivermectin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of High-dose Ivermectin for Reducing Malaria Transmission: A Dose Finding Study NCT02511353 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Mass Drug Administration of Ivermectin and Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as an Additional Intervention for Malaria Elimination NCT03576313 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Antimalaria Drugs Susceptibility Testing for an Effective Management of Infected Patients in Sub-Sahara Africa NCT02974348 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Optimising Operational Use of Artemether-lumefantrine Comparing 3 Day Versus 5 Day NCT02020330 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Efficacy Study of Primaquine and Methylene Blue NCT02831023 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.