Mass Drug Administration of Ivermectin and Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as an Additional Intervention for Malaria Elimination
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-07-31, after 2018-08-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breastchronicstandardrandomizedcentral
Phrases that lowered it: drugsadministrationmalariahypersensitivityhiv -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 0.5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 6 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 0.5 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 148 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 24 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2598 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 431 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ivermectin, piperaquine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Repeat Ivermectin Mass Drug Administrations for MALaria Control II NCT03967054 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of High-dose Ivermectin for Reducing Malaria Transmission: A Dose Finding Study NCT02511353 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Intermittent Preventive Treatment (IPTc) and Home Based Management of Malaria (HMM)in The Gambia NCT00944840 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Antimalaria Drugs Susceptibility Testing for an Effective Management of Infected Patients in Sub-Sahara Africa NCT02974348 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Trial of Artemether-Lumefantrine Alone and in Combination With Ivermectin to Reduce Post-Treatment Malaria Transmission NCT01603251 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.