Repeat Ivermectin Mass Drug Administrations for MALaria Control II

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breastnoteageswomen ofpregnancy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantthe trialdrugmassweek
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2965 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Repeat Ivermectin Mass Drug Administrations for Control of Malaria: a Pilot Safety and Efficacy Study NCT02509481 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Mass Drug Administration of Ivermectin and Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as an Additional Intervention for Malaria Elimination NCT03576313 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Broad One Health Endectocide-based Malaria Intervention in Africa (BOHEMIA) NCT04966702 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Trial of Artemether-Lumefantrine Alone and in Combination With Ivermectin to Reduce Post-Treatment Malaria Transmission NCT01603251 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of High-dose Ivermectin for Reducing Malaria Transmission: A Dose Finding Study NCT02511353 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.