Broad One Health Endectocide-based Malaria Intervention in Africa (BOHEMIA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: activewomencarecurrentlyenrollment
  Phrases that lowered it: agedclinical trialinvestigatorefficacyhealth
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 0.02 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Repeat Ivermectin Mass Drug Administrations for Control of Malaria: a Pilot Safety and Efficacy Study NCT02509481 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Repeat Ivermectin Mass Drug Administrations for MALaria Control II NCT03967054 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of High-dose Ivermectin for Reducing Malaria Transmission: A Dose Finding Study NCT02511353 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Safety of a Single Dose of Moxidectin Compared With Ivermectin in Individuals Living in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas and in Individuals Living in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas With High Levels of Lymphatic Filariasis Co-endemicity Receiving Concomitant Albendazole NCT04311671 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Adverse Events, Change in Disease Activity and How Oral ABBV-4083 Capsules When Given Alone or In Combination With Albendazole Capsules Moves in The Body of Adult Participants With Onchocerca Volvulus Infection NCT04913610 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.