Individualized Therapy For Asthma in Toddlers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (84 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronictherapyreceptorrequiringinjury
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmalong terminhaledicsrelevant
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 1 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 4.92 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11234 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 52366 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Acetaminophen Versus Ibuprofen in Children With Asthma NCT01606319 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• CARE Network Maintenance Versus Intermittent Inhaled Steroids in Wheezing Toddlers (MIST) NCT00675584 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Preschool Children With Upper Respiratory Tract Illnesses Using Azythromycin and Lower Respiratory Tract Symptoms Using Oral Corticosteroids. NCT01272635 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Allergy Immunotherapy for the Reduction of Asthma NCT01028560 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Budesonide/Formoterol Turbuhaler® Versus Terbutaline Nebulization as Reliever Therapy in Children With Moderate Asthma Exacerbation NCT04705727 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.