Treatment of Preschool Children With Upper Respiratory Tract Illnesses Using Azythromycin and Lower Respiratory Tract Symptoms Using Oral Corticosteroids.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (84 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjecttreatinglungrandomizationrecurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmacorticosteroidssignificantrespiratory tractvaccine
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 1 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6402 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 2 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• CARE Network Maintenance Versus Intermittent Inhaled Steroids in Wheezing Toddlers (MIST) NCT00675584 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• AZithromycin Therapy in Preschoolers With a Severe Wheezing Episode Diagnosed at the Emergency Department NCT04669288 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• Individualized Therapy For Asthma in Toddlers NCT01606306 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Mepolizumab Adjunctive Therapy for the Prevention of Asthma Exacerbations in Urban Children NCT03292588 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Azithromycin to Prevent Wheezing Following Severe RSV Bronchiolitis-II NCT02911935 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.