AZithromycin Therapy in Preschoolers With a Severe Wheezing Episode Diagnosed at the Emergency Department

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (84 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal toadmissionacutegreater than
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmadaysrespiratorydrug14
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 1.5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9903 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 69531 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of Preschool Children With Upper Respiratory Tract Illnesses Using Azythromycin and Lower Respiratory Tract Symptoms Using Oral Corticosteroids. NCT01272635 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Azithromycin to Prevent Wheezing Following Severe RSV Bronchiolitis-II NCT02911935 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• CARE Network Maintenance Versus Intermittent Inhaled Steroids in Wheezing Toddlers (MIST) NCT00675584 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Azithromycin to Prevent Wheezing Following Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Bronchiolitis NCT01486758 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Bronchiolitis in Infants Placebo Versus Epinephrine and Dexamethasone Study NCT03567473 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.