Efficacy and Safety of Tolvaptan in the Treatment of Cardiac-Induced Edema in Patients With Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cardiacheartrandomizationventricularfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andpatients whosafety ofthe efficacy
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of Tolvaptan to Treat Patients With Cardiac Edema NCT01651156 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo Controlled Study of the Short Term Clinical Effects of Tolvaptan in Patients Hospitalized for Worsening Heart Failure With Challenging Volume Management NCT01584557 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• AiDing Diuresis wIth Tolvaptan (ADD-IT) NCT02646540 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Targeting Acute Congestion With Tolvaptan in Congestive Heart Failure NCT01644331 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Crossover Study to Compare the Pharmacokinetics and Bioavailability of a Novel Furosemide Regimen Administered Subcutaneously vs. the Same Dose Administered Intravenously in Subjects With Chronic Heart Failure NCT04384653 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.