AiDing Diuresis wIth Tolvaptan (ADD-IT)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (141 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heart failureivcardiacacutestage
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantssubjectsdrugsigns
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 151254 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 296 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 27047 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo Controlled Study of the Short Term Clinical Effects of Tolvaptan in Patients Hospitalized for Worsening Heart Failure With Challenging Volume Management NCT01584557 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Targeting Acute Congestion With Tolvaptan in Congestive Heart Failure NCT01644331 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Tolvaptan in the Treatment of Cardiac-Induced Edema in Patients With Heart Failure NCT01618448 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Study BAY1753011 in Patients With Congestive Heart Failure NCT03901729 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Changes in NT-proBNP, Safety, and Tolerability in HFpEF Patients With a WHF Event (HFpEF Decompensation) Who Have Been Stabilized and Initiated at the Time of or Within 30 Days Post-decompensation (PARAGLIDE-HF) NCT03988634 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.