UARK 2009-09 Myeloma Cure Project: Prospective Trial of Indefinite Revlimid Maintenance Versus Observation for Currently Event-Free Patients With Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 31% for any early termination, 26% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-08-31, after 2010-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lenalidomidebreasttherapycancermaintenance
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantstrialfemalesfemale -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 44.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 36 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 19
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9682 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3168 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 44.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lenalidomide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Combination of Revlimid, Melphalan and Dexamethasone as First Line Treatment for Multiple Myeloma NCT00843310 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Revlimid in Patients With Acute Myelogenous Leukemia and Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT00360672 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Lenalidomide in Treating Patients With Progressive or Recurrent Multiple Myeloma After a Donor Stem Cell Transplant NCT00619684 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Vorinostat,Lenalinomide and Dexamethasone in Multiple Myeloma Refractory to Previous Lenalinomide Containing Regimens NCT01502085 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study of Efficacy and Safety of Lenalidomide, Subcutaneous Bortezomib and Dexamethasone Therapy for Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT02441686 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.