Phase 3 Extension Study of Dexpramipexole in ALS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 39% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termterm safetysubjectthe longsubjects
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyis pregnantsubject whohealthfemale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 3 Study of Dexpramipexole in ALS NCT01281189 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Effect on Disease Progression of BIIB078 Administered to Previously Treated Adults C9ORF72-Associated Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT04288856 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Long-Term Evaluation of BIIB067 (Tofersen) NCT03070119 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of BIIB100 Administered Orally to Adults With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT03945279 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Ibudilast (MN-166) in Subjects With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT02238626 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.