A Trial of BKM120 (a PI3K Inhibitor) in Patients With Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticbreast cancerventricularstudy drugcardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: patients withmultiplediseasesclinicalto evaluate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PhIb BKM120 or BEZ235+Endocrine Treatment in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor + Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01248494 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Gefitinib in Combination With BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, With Enrichment for Patients Whose Tumours Harbour Molecular Alterations of PI3K Pathway and Known to Overexpress EGFR NCT01570296 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of BKM120 and Lapatinib in HER2+/PI3K-activated, Trastuzumab-resistant Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01589861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Bemcentinib (BGB324) in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With TNBC NCT03184558 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) Alpha iNhibition In Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02506556 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.