Cyclophosphamide Therapy for Refractory Antibody-Mediated Rejection (AMR) in Kidney Transplants
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 33% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-01-18, after 2013-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: equal todonortherapytransplanttransplantation
Phrases that lowered it: the studyinvestigatorkgthe opinionopinion of -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 60 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 60 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 49 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 28974 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4584 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cyclophosphamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Clazakizumab for Chronic and Active Antibody Mediated Rejection Post-Kidney Transplant NCT03380377 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Impact of Treatment With Rituximab on the Progression of Humoral Acute Rejection After Renal Transplantation NCT01350882 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Randomized Trial for Mixed Acute Rejection NCT00771875 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Transplant Antibody-Mediated Rejection: Guiding Effective Treatments NCT03994783 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
- Immune Monitoring and CNI Withdrawal in Low Risk Recipients of Kidney Transplantation NCT01517984 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.