Vaccine Therapy in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Stage II-III HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: womencarcinomain situpatientsfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatesafetyvaccinebreast cancer90
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 126 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 363 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• HER2-Peptide Vaccination of Patients With Solid Tumors NCT02276300 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of IMU-131(HER-Vaxx) and Chemotherapy Compared to Chemotherapy Only in Patients With HER2 Positive Advanced Gastric Cancer NCT02795988 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• QUILT-3.013: Study of Ad5 [E1-, E2b-]-HER2/Neu Vaccine (ETBX-021) in Subjects With Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic HER2-Expressing Breast Cancer NCT02751528 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• Vaccine Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage IV HLA-A2 and HER2 Positive Breast or Ovarian Cancer Receiving Trastuzumab NCT00194714 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study of Neoadjuvant Trastuzumab+Docetaxel+NPLD+/-Bevacizumab in Her2-pos. Early Breast Cancer NCT01367028 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.