A Study of IMU-131(HER-Vaxx) and Chemotherapy Compared to Chemotherapy Only in Patients With HER2 Positive Advanced Gastric Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2cancerin situhepatitismetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelgastricchildrenpatientsmg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• HER2-Peptide Vaccination of Patients With Solid Tumors NCT02276300 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• QUILT-3.013: Study of Ad5 [E1-, E2b-]-HER2/Neu Vaccine (ETBX-021) in Subjects With Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic HER2-Expressing Breast Cancer NCT02751528 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• Compare Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of HLX02 and Herceptin in Previously Untreated HER2 +Overexpressing Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03084237 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Vaccine Therapy in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Stage II-III HER2-Positive Breast Cancer NCT01632332 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Study of A166 in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Cancers Expressing HER2 Antigen or Having Amplified HER2 Gene NCT03602079 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.