Effects of BF2.649 in the Treatment of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness in Narcolepsy.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-07-31, after 2010-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientpatientssymptomsseveredepression
Phrases that lowered it: the trialinvestigatorindexhealthythis trial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3986 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3986 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 800 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 77.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- modafinil, pitolisant
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of TAK-994 in Adults With Type 1 and Type 2 Narcolepsy NCT04096560 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
- Patient Narcoleptic Treated With BF2.649 (Pitolisant) in add-on to Sodium Oxybate (HARMONY IV) NCT01789398 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Long Term Open Label Study in Narcolepsy With BF2.649 (Pitolisant) NCT01399606 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Once-Nightly Sodium Oxybate for Treatment of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness and Cataplexy in Narcolepsy NCT02720744 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of BF2.649 in the Treatment of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness in Narcolepsy NCT01067222 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.