A Study of TAK-994 in Adults With Type 1 and Type 2 Narcolepsy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multipleplaceboheadscreeningcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: participantdaywith typesmokingparticipants
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 487 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of BF2.649 in the Treatment of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness in Narcolepsy. NCT01638403 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study of TAK-861 for the Treatment of Narcolepsy Type 1 NCT06470828 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study of Lemborexant in Chinese Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT04549168 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• This is a Study to Determine the Effect of Multiple Doses of an Investigational Drug, Taken by Mouth, in People With Narcolepsy-cataplexy. Accepting Both Males and Females Ages of 18 Years to 55 Years. This Study Will be Conducted in the US and Will Require Approximately 13 Weeks Participation. NCT05015673 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Lemborexant in Subjects 55 Years and Older With Insomnia Disorder (SUNRISE 1) NCT02783729 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.