Influence of BRAF and PIK3K Status on the Efficacy of 5-Fluorouracil/Leucovorin/Oxaliplatin (FOLFIRI) Plus Bevacizumab or Cetuximab in Patients With RAS Wild-type Metastatic Colorectal Carcinoma and < 3 Circulating Tumor Cells (CTC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcellsacutecolorectaltype
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacydayinfluenceor equalwithin weeks
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of 5-Fluorouracil/Leucovorin/Oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) + Bevacizumab Versus 5-Fluorouracil/Leucovorin/Oxaliplatin/Irinotecan (FOLFOXIRI) + Bevacizumab as First Line Treatment of Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Not Previously Treated and With Three or More Circulating Tumoral Cells NCT01640405 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Regorafenib as Single Agent in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (mCRC) With Any RAS or BRAF Mutation Previously Treated With FOLFOXIRI Plus Bevacizumab NCT02175654 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• First Line mFOLFOXIRI + PANITUMUMAB vs mFOLFOX + PANITUMUMAB IN RAS AND BRAF WT METASTATIC COLORECTAL CANCER PATIENTS NCT03231722 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Panitumumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (VOLFI) NCT01328171 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Study of Colorectal Cancer Patients (Stage IIIC) With Either Regorafenib or Standard of Care (No Treatment) After Adjuvant FOLFOX NCT02425683 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.