4 Year Extension Study of Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque-type Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensionlong termterm safetysubjectcompleted
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaqueperiodthe trialsubjects who
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 294 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 438 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Extension Study of Secukinumab Prefilled Syringes in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque-type Psoriasis Completing Preceding Psoriasis Phase III Studies With Secukinumab NCT01544595 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Extension Study up to 3 Years for Secukinumab in Psoriatic Arthritis NCT01892436 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous and Subcutaneous Secukinumab in Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT01412944 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Extension in AS: Sustainability of Benefits, Safety and Tolerability NCT01863732 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• An Extension Study of Subcutaneous Secukinumab in Patients With Juvenile Psoriatic Arthritis (JPsA) and Enthesitis Related Arthritis (ERA) NCT03769168 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.