Extension Study of Secukinumab Prefilled Syringes in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque-type Psoriasis Completing Preceding Psoriasis Phase III Studies With Secukinumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 290 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensiontolerabilitylong termchronicsafety and
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaqueefficacyphase iiimoderate
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 401 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 4 Year Extension Study of Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT01640951 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Extension Study up to 3 Years for Secukinumab in Psoriatic Arthritis NCT01892436 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Study of Secukinumab With 2 mL Pre-filled Syringes NCT02748863 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• 16-week Efficacy and 2-year Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Secukinumab in Participants With Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT02294227 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Efficacy at 24 Weeks With Long Term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy up to 5 Years of Secukinumab in Patients of Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT01752634 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.