Efficacy at 24 Weeks With Long Term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy up to 5 Years of Secukinumab in Patients of Active Psoriatic Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationpsaantiscreeningmri
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasismoderatelong termweekplaque
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 498 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 304 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 16-week Efficacy and 2-year Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Secukinumab in Participants With Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT02294227 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Study to Demonstrate the Efficacy (Including Inhibition of Structural Damage), Safety and Tolerability up to 2 Years of Secukinumab in Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT02404350 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Study to Demonstrate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Intravenous Secukinumab up to 52 Weeks in Subjects With Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT04209205 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• 24 Week Efficacy and 3-year Safety and Efficacy of Secukinumab in Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT01989468 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Efficacy at 24 Weeks and Long Term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy up to 2 Years of Secukinumab (AIN457) in Patients With Active Psoriatic Arthritis (PsA) NCT01392326 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.