Dose Ranging Study of GSK1265744 Plus Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors for Induction of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 (HIV-1) Virologic Suppression Followed by Virologic Suppression Maintenance by GSK1265744 Plus Rilpivirine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celldiseaseevidencevaccinecells
  Phrases that lowered it: antiretroviralinfectedonce dailygenotypeart
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 7 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Pilot Study Assessing the Integrase Inhibitor GSK1349572 in HIV-infected Persons With Virus Resistant to Raltegravir NCT00950859 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Dolutegravir Compared to Darunavir/Ritonavir , Each in Combination With Dual Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (NRTIs) in ART-naive Subjects NCT01449929 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Trial Comparing GSK1349572 50mg Once Daily to Raltegravir 400mg Twice Daily NCT01227824 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Dose Ranging Trial of GSK1349572 and 2 NRTI in HIV-1 Infected, Therapy Naive Subjects NCT00951015 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Trial Comparing GSK1349572 50mg Plus Abacavir/Lamivudine Once Daily to Atripla (Also Called The SINGLE Trial) NCT01263015 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.