Testing of Drugs Erlotinib and Docetaxel in Lung Cancer Patients Classified Regarding Their Outlook Using VeriStrat®.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 39% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cell lunglung cancersmall cellnsclcnon small
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerdrugspatientsthe trialcell non
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 37.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Docetaxel Intermittent-Erlotinib (Tarceva®) In Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00783471 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Induction Therapy With Intercalated Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) and Chemotherapy in NSCLC With Activating Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutation in Stages II-IIIB NCT02326285 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Study of Erlotinib With Docetaxel in Selected Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients in First Line Treatment NCT00840125 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine/Carboplatin in Chemo-naive Stage IIIB/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Exon 19 or 21 Mutation NCT00874419 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Tivantinib Plus Erlotinib Versus Placebo Plus Erlotinib for the Treatment of Non-squamous, Non-small-cell Lung Cancer NCT01244191 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.