Efficacy and Safety of MT-9938 for Treatment of Uremic Pruritus in Subjects With End-stage Renal Disease Receiving Hemodialysis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: scorediseasestableopioidprior
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningvisitdayeffect ofthe effect
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Investigate the Safety of LT5001 Drug Product for Uremic Pruritus in Hemodialysis Patients NCT04393675 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of IV CR845 in Hemodialysis Patients, and Its Efficacy in Patients With Uremic Pruritus NCT02229929 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate IV CR845 in Hemodialysis Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Pruritus NCT02858726 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of HSK21542 in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease-Associated Pruritus NCT05135390 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CR845 in Hemodialysis Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Pruritus (KALM-1) NCT03422653 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.