Phase I/II Study of Capecitabine Plus Aflibercept to Treat Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinepatients mustmetastaticpriormonths
  Phrases that lowered it: trialmethodsopen labeladultcombination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 1 Study Testing the Combination of Aflibercept and Capecitabine in Metastatic Digestive and Breast Cancers NCT01843725 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Study of Aflibercept as Maintenance Therapy Following Induction With Aflibercept in Combination With XELOX, as First-Line Treatment for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patient NCT01955629 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Quality of Life Study of Aflibercept in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Previously Treated With an Oxaliplatin-Based Regimen NCT01571284 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• XAD - Xelox (Capecitabine + Oxaliplatin) + Bevacizumab + Dasatinib NCT00920868 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Combination Chemotherapy With Aflibercept in Patients With Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT02129257 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.