Gulf War Illness: Evaluation of an Innovative Detoxification Program
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-12-31, after 2010-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: with chronicheartdiseasetherapyliver
Phrases that lowered it: jointalcoholconditionsperioddependence -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6222 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 601 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 59.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- niacin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment Study of Carnosine Versus Placebo in Gulf War Illness (GWI) NCT00810368 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Trial of Naltrexone and Dextromethorphan for Gulf War Illness NCT02206490 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Gulf War Illness Inflammation Reduction Trial NCT02506192 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- D-cycloserine: A Novel Treatment for Gulf War Illness (GWDCS) NCT02983734 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Complementary Neurosteroid Intervention in Gulf War Illnesses (GWVI) NCT01956279 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.