Explore the Efficacy and Safety of Once-daily Oral Rivaroxaban for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Subjects With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Scheduled for Cardioversion

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapypatientsactiveriskfibrillation
  Phrases that lowered it: inclusiveopen labeland safetyrelevantefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 452 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Exploring Two Strategies of Rivaroxaban (JNJ39039039; BAY-59-7939) and One of Oral Vitamin K Antagonist in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Undergo Percutaneous Coronary Intervention NCT01830543 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Exploring the Efficacy of Once Daily Oral Rivaroxaban for Treatment of Thrombus in Left Atrial/Left Atrial Appendage in Subjects With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation or Atrial Flutter NCT01839357 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• INVestIgation of rheumatiC AF Treatment Using Vitamin K Antagonists, Rivaroxaban or Aspirin Studies, Non-Inferiority NCT02832544 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Blinded Randomized Trial of Anticoagulation to Prevent Ischemic Stroke and Neurocognitive Impairment in AF NCT02387229 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Edoxaban vs. Warfarin in Subjects Undergoing Cardioversion of Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) NCT02072434 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.