A Phase II Trial of Varenicline for the Treatment of Cocaine Dependence

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientivpatientslungdementia
  Phrases that lowered it: trialsubjectsnicotinedetermined byas determined
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 196 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7779 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Human Behavioral Pharmacology Laboratory (HBPL) Study of Varenicline's Impact on Cocaine and Alcohol Craving NCT01151813 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Drug Interaction and Self Administration Studies of Compounds for Cocaine Use Disorder NCT02537873 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Varenicline (Chantix™) for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence NCT00705523 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• VIVITROL as a Treatment for Cocaine and Alcohol Dependence NCT00777062 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• SXC-2023 Cocaine Interaction Study NCT06343532 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.