OGX-427 in Metastatic Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer With Prostate-Specific Antigen Progression While Receiving Abiraterone

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerradiationpriordaysbone
  Phrases that lowered it: dailyclinicallymphomatrialto evaluate
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9877 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 53440 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• OGX-427 in Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer Patients NCT01120470 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Cabazitaxel Versus the Switch to Alternative AR Targeted Therapy Enzalutamide or Abiraterone in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) Primary Resistant Patients to Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT02379390 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
• A Phase II Study of PX-866 in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01331083 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel Versus Cabazitaxel Post Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT03764540 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Avelumab Plus 2nd-generation ADT in African American Subjects With mCRPC NCT03770455 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.