Study of Decitabine and Tetrahydrouridine (THU) in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellacuteleukemiadecitabinedl
  Phrases that lowered it: participantdosestudymalefemale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Decitabine for High-Risk Sickle Cell Disease NCT01375608 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Research Study Investigating How Well NDec Works in People With Sickle Cell Disease NCT05405114 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Algorithm-Based Hydroxyurea Dosing on Fetal Hemoglobin Response, Acute Complications, and Organ Function in People With Sickle Cell Disease NCT02225132 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Pociredir NCT05169580 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• AB1 in Adult Patients with Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) NCT05261711 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.