Research Study Investigating How Well NDec Works in People With Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpatientspatientcounttherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: visitparticipantsmaleplaceboinclusive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 770 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test How Either a Capsule or a Tablet With NDec (Decitabine and Tetrahydrouridine) Works in the Body of Healthy People NCT06291285 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Study of Decitabine and Tetrahydrouridine (THU) in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT01685515 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Decitabine for High-Risk Sickle Cell Disease NCT01375608 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Oral GSK4172239D Compared With Placebo in Sickle Cell Disease Participants Aged 18 to 50 Years NCT05660265 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Assessment of Algorithm-Based Hydroxyurea Dosing on Fetal Hemoglobin Response, Acute Complications, and Organ Function in People With Sickle Cell Disease NCT02225132 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.