Trial Comparing Calendula Officinalis With Aqueous Cream Essex to Treat Skin Reactions From Radiotherapy of Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-09-30, after 2011-02-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerradiationpatientspainpatient
Phrases that lowered it: areatopicalcreammildefficacy -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 45 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 16 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lanolin, sesame oil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Neuropathic Pain Caused by Radiation Therapy NCT00798083 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Prophylactic Topical Agents in Reducing Radiation-Induced Dermatitis in Patients With Non-inflammatory Breast Cancer NCT02556632 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Curcumin for the Prevention of Radiation-induced Dermatitis in Breast Cancer Patients NCT01042938 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- RTA 408 Lotion in Patients at Risk for Radiation Dermatitis - PRIMROSE NCT02142959 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- LUT014 for the Treatment of Radiation Induced Dermatitis in Breast Cancer Patients NCT04261387 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.