Early Treatment for Acute ACL Tear

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kneecancerinjurypatientsstatus
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsdrugsdiabetesallergicanti inflammatory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 14 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 33 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 282 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• IL-1RA Treatment in Patients With Acute ACL Tear and Painful Effusions NCT02930122 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• Proof of Concept Study Comparing FX006 to Kenalog®-40 in Patients With Post-Traumatic Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02468583 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• REcycled CartiLage Auto/Allo IMplantation NCT03672825 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Lyophilized and Micronized Particulate Human Amniotic and Umbilical Cord (TTAX03) for KL Grade 3-4 Knee OA NCT05079035 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Success of Long-acting Anti-inflammatories After Anterior Cruciate Ligament and Meniscal Injury NCT04331002 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.